статья в журнале

En

PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY

ISSN:0928-5105
eSSN:1573-160X

2021

10.22449/1573-160X-2021-2-238-254

Purpose. The work is aimed at constructing an adaptive model of the ecological-economic system of the sea coastal zone intended to control the volume of consumption of marine assimilation and biological resources by the coastal socio-economic system. Methods and Results. The model based on tracking the integral balance of the rates of marine environment pollution and its purification due to the natural physical and biogeochemical processes and to the environmental actions is proposed. The average multi-year values of the ecosystem variables are used in the applied concept of stationary state of the marine ecosystem. To describe the conditions forming the polluted area in the coastal marine environment, proposed is the algorithm taking into account the ratio between the rate of growth of concentration of the pollutants inflowing from the coastal sources and the rate of their destruction resulting from natural purification of marine environment. Coastal pollution runoff was managed by the penalties imposed on the economic system, which was forced to reduce the generalized product output simultaneously increasing its prime cost. In the marine ecosystem model, the main lower links of the food chain were used: concentrations of phytoplankton, zooplankton and bacterioplankton. Their weighted sum constituted the marine biodiversity index, which was taken as a concentration of bio-resource consumed by the coastal economic system. It was believed that there was an inverse relationship between the biodiversity index and the pollution concentration. Therefore, the maximum permissible pollution concentration was assessed based on the permissible values of the biodiversity index. Along with control of the economic efficiency of marine resource consumption, the model provided for the biodiversity index monitoring so that it did not fall below its permissible vales. In this case, the management agent included in the model, limited production. The model equations are constructed by the method of adaptive balance of causes, which preserved the material balances resulting from the interaction between the environmental and economic processes. The modular equations of the method permitted to use the known stationary state of the ecosystem to obtain the estimates of the influence coefficients. It is shown that the forecasted scenarios provide the compromises between the efficiency of the coastal economic system and the ability of marine ecosystem to restore the consumed assimilation and biological resources. Conclusions. The proposed model makes it possible to forecast the scenarios of the ecological and economic processes that provide a balance of consumption and reproduction of marine resources.

DAPTIVE MANAGEMENT MODEL, SSIMILATION AND BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES, OASTAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM, ARINE ECOSYSTEM, DAPTIVE BALANCE OF CAUSES, ARINE POLLUTION, IODIVERSITY INDEX, UNOFF MANAGEMENT AGENTS, ORECASTED SCENARIOS

2021-07-15 12:07:43