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PROCESSES IN GEOMEDIA

2021

In this paper, we performed analyzes of the frequency and intensity of precipitation in two regions of the Black sea, namely, in the area of the AI-Petri mountain range and the Eastern coast (Sochi). The main focus is on extreme precipitation, which often occurs in these areas. The source material for the analysis was observation data from the North Eurasian Climate Center (NECC) database and MFRRA reanalysis data. To determine the parameters of distribution function in the region of rare (extreme) events, the “max-spectrum” technique was used. It is shown that in most cases, both on the basis of observational data and model data, the tail attenuation of the distribution function obeys a power law. The attenuation coefficient estimates are obtained. The analysis of the spectrum of maxima made it possible to objectively evaluate the boundary value of the daily precipitation amount, which separates extreme precipitation from ordinary one. It is shown that the expected time period of such an event is the same for all considered data arrays and equal to approximately one year. Given the attenuation coefficient of the right-hand side of the distribution obtained from the spectrum of maxima, a cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) constructed on the basis of field data is compared with a particular case of the generalized distribution of extreme values.

EXTREME PRECIPITATION, BLACK SEA, LONG-TERM TIME SERIES, DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, HEAVY-TAIL EXPONENT, MAX-SPECTRUM

2022-08-09 14:12:52